As Diwali lights begin to come on, brokerages are once again rolling out their stock pick ritual, promising to brighten investors’ portfolios. But how many of last year’s festive bets actually lit them up? Not many, it turns out. Nearly two-thirds lost value, with almost a third shedding more than 25%. Yet, interestingly, more than half still managed to beat the Sensex, shows a Mint analysis.
In the analysis, of the 148 stocks recommended by 40 brokerages for Diwali 2025 shows that nearly 63% declined from last Diwali till date (20 October 2025 and 30 October 2026). Yet 53.4%, outperformed the Sensex, which fell 11.7% over the period. Almost a third of the picks lost more than a quarter of their value.
Sandip Jha, chief product officer at Godrej Wealth outlines that outperformance is useful information, it should never be used to explain away a loss.
Jha said recommendations should be assessed on absolute returns, performance against a relevant benchmark over the same period, and the risk taken. Investors must also distinguish between a sound business undergoing a valuation correction, and one whose fundamentals are deteriorating.
The 2025 Diwali picks had the highest proportion of Sensex-beaters across the three annual sets analyzed by Mint, with each year's Diwali recommendations seen over the subsequent one-year period. This share of outperformers rose from 36% for the 2024 picks and 49% for the 2023 selections. But only 37% of last year’s picks delivered positive returns.