DETROIT — Used vehicle prices are forecast to fall more than previously expected this year, as high gas prices and broader inflationary costs hit Americans' pocketbooks.
Cox Automotive on Wednesday lowered its forecast for the company's Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, from a 2% increase to a rise of only 0.2% for the year. That slight uptick would mark the third consecutive year of relatively flat pricing after large increases and then declines during the pandemic.
The lower forecast follows a 1.95% decline in the index from July to September, including a 0.6% drop last month compared with a year earlier. September marked the first time since March 2025 that the monthly index hadn't been higher than a year earlier.
"As we enter Q4, interest rates are rising, consumer sentiment is falling, and yet a wealth effect from strong and sustained financial-asset growth is providing some offsetting cushion. Many metrics we watch are converging back toward pre-pandemic norms, but the road to get there has been anything but smooth," Cox Automotive's chief economist, Jeremy Robb, said in a release
The historical average for the Manheim index is about a 2.3% year-over-year gain. Nonadjusted wholesale used vehicle prices fell 1.2% year over year in September and 1.3% from August as depreciation accelerated in the third quarter, Cox said.