Crude oil prices, which have remained elevated since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, are expected to weigh on the profitability of the three state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)—Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC).
Higher crude prices increase the cost of refining and fuel production, squeezing marketing margins if retail fuel prices are not revised accordingly.
Dhaval Popat, Analyst – Energy at Choice Institutional Equities, said state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) remain the most vulnerable to crude oil prices sustaining above $100 per barrel, particularly if retail petrol and diesel prices remain unchanged.
Popat expects HPCL to face the highest earnings pressure, followed by IOCL and BPCL, as elevated crude prices compress marketing margins, potentially offsetting the benefits of stronger refining margins.
Popat said city gas distribution (CGD) companies, including IGL, MGL, Gujarat Gas, and Adani Total Gas, could face margin pressure if higher gas procurement costs cannot be fully passed on to consumers.