Indian equities are heading into November after a prolonged phase of weakness, with persistent foreign investor outflows, elevated crude oil prices, rupee depreciation and global uncertainty weighing on market sentiment. The recent correction has also put the spotlight on whether the Nifty 50 can stage a recovery in the final two months of 2026 or if investors should brace for further volatility.
Historical trends, however, offer some reasons for optimism. Data from 2001 to 2025 shows that November and December have been the strongest months for the Nifty 50, delivering average returns of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The index has ended November in positive territory in 15 of the past 25 years, while December has recorded gains in 17 of those 25 years, according to NSE data analysed by SAMCO Research.
With Diwali falling on 8 November this year, festive demand, improved consumption sentiment and year-end portfolio adjustments could provide additional support to equities. But will seasonal strength be enough to revive the bulls, or will global headwinds continue to cap gains? A look at 25 years of market data and expert views offers clues on what may lie ahead for Dalal Street.
Jahol Prajapati, Equity Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said November and December could provide a seasonal boost to Indian equities after several months of persistent weakness.
Historical data since 2001 shows that November and December are among the Nifty’s strongest months, with average returns of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The index has ended these months in positive territory in 60% and 68% of instances, respectively.