Nomura prefers Nippon AMC for its "consistent AUM market share gains", followed by HDFC AMC for its "benign valuation", as it expects net equity inflows into Indian mutual funds to rise 7% month-on-month to Rs386 billion in September 2026.
The brokerage expects small-cap funds to remain the largest contributor to flows at Rs86 billion, or 22% of total inflows, followed by mid-cap at Rs81 billion, or 21%, and flexi-cap at Rs63 billion, or 16%.
Large-cap funds are expected to turn positive, with an inflow of Rs8 billion in September versus an outflow of Rs11 billion in August. Large- and mid-cap flows are also expected to improve month-on-month to Rs43 billion, while multi-cap flows are seen largely stable at Rs36 billion.
Nomura's "Net Flow Navigator" estimates net equity inflows across the top 15 equity and hybrid scheme categories, excluding arbitrage flows to capture "genuine directional equity flows". It expects September flows of Rs386 billion versus Rs359 billion in August, taking the FY27 year-to-date monthly average to Rs360 billion, compared with Rs379 billion in FY26.
Nippon AMC's flow share is estimated at 7.8% in September, with its three-month average flow share 1.5 percentage points above its AUM share of 7.3%.