Prashant Jain’s bullish outlook for Indian equities rests on one crucial assumption: the sharp rise in US bond yields is largely behind the market.
If that assumption proves wrong, the investment case could change materially.
In his September 2026 quarterly letter for 3P Investment Managers, Jain identifies a move in the US 10-year Treasury yield above 6% as the principal risk to his outlook. Such a development could usher in a very different environment for global markets, with slower growth, lower investment, weaker corporate profits and declining equity valuations.
Jain considers this a less likely outcome. But he argues that investors must prepare for it because the consequences could be severe.
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.29% at the end of September. The fund manager believes the bulk of the increase is behind the market and expects yields to stabilise around prevailing levels in the foreseeable future.