Ukraine is facing increasing uncertainty over its ability to sustain the war against Russia as a series of moves by U.S. President Donald Trump has raised fresh questions about Washington's reliability as Kyiv's most important military partner.
Trump's agreement with Putin to ease sanctions for Russia to provide global markets with diesel, as well as restrictions on U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces, has put President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a difficult position as winter looms.
Higher diesel prices – essential to transporting goods and agricultural production – tend to drive up costs across the wider economy and fuel inflation. With November's U.S. midterm elections approaching, Trump is under pressure to bring fuel costs down.
But experts told CNBC that the diesel deal would deliver only a marginal financial benefit to Russia, and not move the needle much on global energy prices. Its wider political implications may be more significant, potentially reinforcing the Kremlin's belief that it can secure concessions from Washington without making compromises over Ukraine.
"Russia's main gain is political: Trump's decision eases sanctions pressure and undermines Western unity," Sergey Aleksashenko, senior research fellow and head of economics at the NEST Centre, told CNBC.