State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are expected to make a sharp sequential recovery in the July-September quarter of FY27, with their combined profit expected to reach Rs 15,000 crore compared with a cumulative loss of Rs 18,150 crore in Q1FY27, according to analysts.
According to Emkay Research, the integrated margins of the three OMCs, including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum, are estimated at Rs 9-14 a litre in Q2FY27 against Rs 1-3 a litre in the previous quarter. The increase is likely to be driven by improved auto-fuel marketing due to lower crude oil prices in early July and the full impact of the earlier Rs 7/litre retail fuel price hike by the government.
Integrated margins are the combined profitability of an oil marketing company’s refining and fuel marketing businesses, essentially, how much it earns per barrel or per litre after covering crude, refining, and retail-sale economics.
LPG under-recoveries also eased as international contract prices and spot premiums declined, while higher retail cylinder prices helped narrow the gap between the cost of supplying cooking gas and the price charged to consumers.
The government raised the prices of domestic cooking gas by a cumulative Rs 89 per cylinder, following two hikes of Rs 60 and Rs 29 on March 7 and June 7, respectively, as fuel retailers faced pressure from elevated global energy prices.