Prediction market Polymarket puts the probability of the S&P 500 crossing 8,000 by the end of 2026 at 31%. The benchmark closed at 7,659.44 on Friday, October 16, after gaining nearly 2% for the week despite a sell-off in technology and semiconductor stocks. A move to 8,000 would require a gain of around 4.4% from Friday’s close.
The S&P 500’s earnings outlook remains a key pillar of the bull market. According to FactSet, Q3 earnings are projected to grow 29% year-on-year, while full-year 2026 earnings growth is forecast at 32.8%. Revenue growth for the third quarter is estimated at 12.6%.
Just 9% of S&P 500 companies had reported their third-quarter results as of the latest available data. Of those, 84% beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates, above the five-year average of 78%. However, the aggregate earnings surprise was only 2.6%, well below the five-year average of 7.5%.
That makes the coming weeks crucial: investors will look for evidence that earnings strength extends beyond a handful of large companies and that AI investments are translating into sustainable profits.
The biggest challenge for equities remains the combination of higher energy prices and persistent inflationary pressure. Brent crude climbed to $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May, as escalating Middle East tensions, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and fresh concerns over Russian energy supplies heightened fears of further disruptions.