US voters head to the polls on November 3 in midterm elections that could significantly reshape the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency. The elections are increasingly being seen as a referendum on his administration, with dissatisfaction over the economy, rising fuel prices and the Iran war weighing on Republican prospects.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Trump's approval rating at 32%. On the generic congressional ballot, 52% of likely voters favour Democrats, against 44% for Republicans. Polls point to Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives, although the Senate race remains less certain.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to overturn the Republicans' narrow 218-214 House majority and four seats to take control of the Senate, currently held by Republicans 53-47.
The stakes are high because Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, making it easier for Trump to push his legislative agenda. A Democratic victory in either chamber would make that considerably harder, even if it does not lead to an immediate reversal of existing policies.
There is, however, an important distinction between the election result and when the new Congress takes office. The existing Congress remains in place until January 3, 2027, when the newly elected 120th Congress convenes. Until then, Republicans will retain their current majorities, giving Trump time to work with the existing Congress on legislation and appointments.