Wall Street estimates for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator now expect an acceleration from the level that prompted the central bank to hike rates last month.
The estimates come after a hotter-than-expected producer price index came in at 1.3% Thursday, the biggest monthly gain since March 2022 and more than double the 0.6% consensus.
That drove the year-over-year increase to 6.3%, the biggest jump since December 2022. The increase was paced by a 20% rise in gasoline prices. But taking out food, energy and trade services, prices still rose a healthy 0.5%, indicating that inflation was broader than just energy.
Seven Wall Street estimates gathered by CNBC show core personal consumption expenditures inflation for September, which will be published later this month, is forecast to rise 0.32%, up from 0.25% in August. Wall Street economists use the consumer price index, released Wednesday, and the PPI to estimate the PCE.
"We see real risks the Fed will deliver another rate hike in two weeks' time even as recent Fedspeak tempered expectations for back-to-back increases,'' wrote Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.