Don't expect huge near-term moves in energy stocks off the results of the midterms. But there are some investing implications over the longer-term. Let me break it down.
Yes, it's entirely possible that one or both houses of Congress will shift to Democratic control. That's not my opinion. It's what many of the research reports, polls, and prediction markets are suggesting as of this writing.
For argument's sake, let's say that this time the polls are correct. The election ends with a "blue trickle," and Democrats win out with a slight edge in the House, Senate, or both. It won't be enough to meaningfully change, well, anything. If the election ends with just a slight lean to the Democratic side, it won't be enough for a veto-proof majority. Candidates can specify policies — like halting the growth of data centers — all they want, but there's a chasm between being elected and passing new laws.
Research I've read and conversations we've had on CNBC suggest that the next two years in Washington, D.C., will be flush with finger-pointing, investigations into the president and his family, and posturing ahead of the far-more-important 2028 presidential election.
S&P Global doesn't exactly agree with me, saying that Democratic control of either chamber would bring "tougher oversight of agency decisions" and could impact things such as tax incentives and "other policies underpinning long-term energy investments."