Expert view: Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, sees a chance that the Nifty 50 will end the year in the red, with a better December than October. In an interview with Mint, Ghose said the market is oversold, so a sharp relief rally toward 23,800–24,200 is possible. Talking about foreign capital flows, he said FPIs will come back when the dollar and US yields peak, not before. Edited excerpts:
Getting back into the green would need a rally of about 15% in ten weeks. The Nifty ended 2025 at a solid close above 26,100 and stood at 22,888.95 on 19 October.
I wouldn't bet on that. The market is oversold, though, and sentiment is very washed out, so a sharp relief rally toward 23,800–24,200 is quite possible.
That would need two triggers: a credible de-escalation around Hormuz that pulls Brent back below $90, and a peak in US yields.
On the charts, 22,000–22,300 is the zone the bulls must hold, and the index needs to close above 23,200 before we can talk about a trend change. My base case is a negative year with a better December than October.