Polls show Republicans facing a rout in the midterm elections on Tuesday. Some investors are nervous about another possibility: What if the election outcome isn’t immediately known?
History shows investors don’t have much to worry about. Right now, it doesn’t look like the election will be particularly close.
On Friday, election forecaster Silver Bulletin gave Democrats a near-78% chance of winning control of the Senate and a 95% chance of gaining control of the House. In its simulations, Democrats on average ended up with 53 senators and 240 congressmen, well above the 51 seats and 218 seats, respectively, needed to control the Senate and House. But in nearly 20% of simulations, the Senate broke down either 51-49 in favor of Democrats or 50-50, with Vice President JD Vance breaking a tie.
An election that close creates the risk that control of Congress won’t be known for days or even weeks. For example, the Alaska Senate race, which relies on ranked-choice voting, is considered a potential pickup for Democrats. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the first-choice votes, Alaskan officials have said it could take until Nov. 18 to tabulate the ranked-choice votes and declare a winner.
President Donald Trump has also suggested he may challenge the results. The Justice Department sued Alaska election officials last week, asking a judge to prevent certification of the election results if the outcome is tipped by votes split between incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R., Alaska) and another candidate with a nearly identical name.