The U.S. economy isn't expected to have produced much job growth in October, with employers reluctant to hire workers but also not cutting staff amid a shrinking labor force and a growing problem of long-term unemployment.
Economists are looking for a meager nonfarm payrolls gain of 59,000, a slight uptick from the 29,000 jobs produced in September, according to the Dow Jones consensus. That result would continue a pattern of sparse growth.
But that's kind of OK: The forecast also is that the unemployment rate will hold at a very low 4.2% rate, the product of a climate where a stagnant labor force reduces the need for outsized job increases to keep the jobless level steady.
"Long-term, we're not going to need as many jobs added to the economy to have stable employment because we have fewer people who are available to work," said Nicole Bachaud, labor economist at jobs site ZipRecruiter. "An aging workforce is pushing a lot of people into retirement. We have had decades of low birth rates, meaning we don't have a lot of people who are coming in to replace those retiring workers. And immigration is now down pretty significantly, which is reducing some of that prime-age employment."
Evaluating the health of the labor market in such a climate becomes a moving target, Bachaud said.