For years, investors seeking refuge during market swings gravitated towards IT and consumer staples stocks, but that strategy is looking less reliable today as both sectors wrestle with slowing growth, rising competition and shifting investor expectations.
A sector is defensive “when earnings volatility is amongst the lowest, when the ownership of this sector is quite low, and expectations are low,” said Harish Krishnan, chief investment officer Equity, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC.
The numbers tell the story. Over the past three years, the Nifty IT index has gone nowhere, while the Nifty FMCG index has fallen 16%. In contrast, Nifty 50 has gained 17%, according to Bloomberg data.
Fund managers say these sectors no longer have the combination that once made them dependable safe havens: low expectations, limited investor ownership and steady earnings.
Bloomberg data showed that Nifty IT surged 166% in 2009 and 60% in 2021, while Nifty FMCG gained 59% in 2005 and 48.5% in 2012—returns that market participants believe may be difficult to replicate.