There is much talk about Artificial Intelligence making everything irrelevant and taking jobs away. Wealth management is no exception. AI will automate a significant share of knowledge-based services, including law, consulting, banking, audit, research and insurance. The pattern will be consistent: repeatable tasks will disappear, while work demanding higher levels of human judgement and expertise will retain its value.
The question is not whether this transformation will happen, but when, and how accurately we can predict the pace of adoption to prepare for it.
The Bass Diffusion Model helps explain AI adoption through two forces: innovators, who experiment independently, and imitators, who follow proven success. In wealth management, imitation often dominates. Firms move when peers succeed, regulators signal comfort, or clients expect comparable capabilities.
Based on reasonable industry assumptions, we expect AI adoption in core advisory and portfolio work to reach one in six firms by 2029, one in four by 2030, and peak in growth around 2033. By 2035, it may become standard practice. These figures are illustrative, but the underlying pattern is not.
This is the technology S-curve: adoption begins slowly before accelerating sharply. AI in wealth management remains at the base of this curve, largely confined to administrative tasks such as summaries, notes and drafting, with limited application in portfolio construction and advisory.