Fund outflows and a rising energy bill are expected to keep putting pressure on India's rupee, even as the central bank works to slow depreciation.
Over the last several days, the currency has recovered from 96.79 rupees per dollar to the 95-level, aided by the Reserve Bank of India's latest measures. But while those will provide short-term relief, the currency is expected to weaken toward the end of the year and mid-2027, and a 100 rupee-per-dollar mark could not be ruled out, strategists said.
The RBI's steps will slow the rupee's depreciation, but they cannot "fully offset the fundamental pressures stemming from elevated oil prices, a wider current account deficit, and a challenging global capital flow environment," Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, head of Asia-Pacific economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told CNBC.
Her firm sees the Indian currency trading around 97 per US dollar by end-2026 and at 98 rupees by mid-2027. Singapore-based Mizuho Securities also expects the rupee to slide to 98 rupees against the greenback by late 2026 and early next year, Vishnu Varathan, head of macro strategy for APAC at the firm, told CNBC.
"The RBI is determined to do whatever is necessary to ensure orderly movement in the foreign exchange market," Sanjay Malhotra, the governor of the RBI, said in an interview with local Indian media outlet Moneycontrol on Tuesday.