While record inflows are difficult to predict, Manish Sonthalia, Chief Investment Officer at Emkay Investment Managers, expects net positive FII flows in the second half of FY27 as global allocations shift away from the AI trade.
According to him, a bullish outlook on India requires crude oil prices to remain below $90 per barrel, given their impact on demand, inflation and interest rates.
"If oil remains below $90 and inflation is contained, we could see a pause in the December, February and April monetary policy decisions. Otherwise, rate hikes cannot be ruled out," he said in an interview with Moneycontrol.
Meanwhile, Sonthalia believes the trend of earnings upgrades could continue over the next two quarters. "Earnings growth of 14–15 percent over the next two years is achievable, provided oil prices moderate, interest costs remain manageable and geopolitical issues affecting supply chains are resolved," he said.
Considering the recent strong market rally, do you think this marks the beginning of a fresh leg of a bull run, with the possibility of scaling new highs in the coming year? Does this rally indicate that the worst is behind us?