Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in India is at an inflection point across segments, with improving economics, better product options and supportive government policies driving penetration, Nomura said in a latest report.
"EV adoption in India has accelerated after the west Asia crisis," the brokerage said, adding that the rise in petrol, diesel and CNG prices has been only 8%, 9% and 13%, respectively, since December 2025. If oil prices sustain at current levels, fuel prices may need to be increased by Rs 5-7 per litre, it said.
Nomura said the breakeven period for owning an EV scooter over an internal combustion engine (ICE) scooter has fallen to around 2.4 years. A two-wheeler consumer can get a "100% payback on the capital value of an EV vehicle in 8.8 years", assuming no resale value, which could provide additional gains.
For electric cars, breakeven periods against petrol SUVs have fallen to around three years for compact SUVs, 2.5 years for mid-size SUVs and two years for large SUVs. "Consequently, EV penetration has risen rapidly at higher price points," Nomura said. BMW India is getting around 30% of its bookings from EVs, resulting in waiting periods of two to three months.
Nomura estimates that EV penetration in passenger vehicles rose to 7.9% in September 2026 from 4% in FY26, while penetration in two-wheelers increased to 11.6% from 6.5%.