India’s economy could grow closer to 8%, but profit growth at large listed companies will stay muted, says Jitendra Gohil, chief investment officer for listed equities at Bajaj Alts. The RBI raised its FY27 growth forecast recently to 7.1%. With more than two decades in the industry (including stints as Chief Investment Strategist at Kotak Alts and heading the India Investment Committee at Credit Suisse Wealth Management), Gohil has built a framework he calls “Connecting the Dots.” It explicitly links politics, policy, macro shifts and stock selection. He explains how this lens has reshaped his view of India, why corporate earnings may lag GDP, and where Bajaj Alts is positioning its PMS and Category-III AIF strategies.
Global developments have become the bigger driving force for Indian markets. We no longer look at India purely through a traditional domestic-macro lens. Pure macro analysis rarely makes money. The more useful middle path is politics: how politics shapes macro outcomes and how the two together shape equity markets. At Bajaj Alts we study global forces along with macro and policy shifts to identify sector rotations and multi-bagger opportunities.
A useful illustration is the China–India comparison from 2000 to 2026. China’s per-capita income rose roughly 15 times while India’s rose 5 to 6 times. Yet the Chinese equity market delivered only about half the returns of the Indian market. The difference lies in political structure. India’s democratic system has allowed a relatively concentrated set of companies to drive market returns even while the broader macro economy remained comparatively fragile. India’s per-capita income is still near $3,000, yet the equity market has delivered strong long-term returns.
What is the most important structural shift over the last decade?
Democratisation of capital. After the post-2009 global liquidity surge, capital became cheaper and more widely available through private credit and private funding. Combined with the democratisation of information and technology, this has enabled younger companies to raise significant capital and challenge established players. We are seeing a David-versus-Goliath dynamic across several categories.