With India's equity market under fresh pressure last week, after briefly recovering from a new 52-week low earlier this month, analysts are turning their attention to a level Nifty 50 hasn’t tested since April last year.
That level is 21,743.65, the intraday low touched on 7 April last year, before the US tariff war intensified and India also began being seen as an anti-artificial intelligence (AI) trade, resulting in massive foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows.
That low involved a 17.25% drawdown in Nifty from a high of 26,277.35 on 27 September 2024, with FPIs selling cash shares worth ₹2.85 trillion between October 2024 and March 2025.
Analysts expect the level to hold for now, but warn that a breach could trigger a deeper correction and signal a shift in the market’s medium-term trend.
"The crucial level to watch out for is 21,743.65," said Sahaj Agrawal, senior vice-president (derivatives research) at Kotak Neo. “If it is respected, we would get a bounce back to around 23,500-23,600 to begin with. If, however, the level is decisively broken that could increase chances of a further correction, and we would have to re-assess the medium-term structure of the market.”