A billion-dollar war chest was meant to be Republicans' great equalizer heading into a bleak midterm election environment defined by economic frustration, President Donald Trump's unpopularity and fallout from the war in Iran.
From Labor Day through Oct 14., GOP groups injected more than $740 million into congressional races that will determine control of Congress, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. That includes at least $220 million in spending from Trump-linked groups. Elon Musk has separately given another $276 million to Republican groups since July and helped boost the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund super PAC to a record quarter.
Yet with less than three weeks until the Nov. 3 Election Day, the spending blitz has barely moved the map. Democrats lead in FiftyPlusOne's polling averages across nine of the Senate's most competitive races – Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – little changed from before the Republican spending spree. Minnesota was expected to be solidly blue, making its tight race a concern for Democrats.
And Republican political operatives and independent election observers CNBC spoke with say the money hasn't had the effects its magnitude would be expected to in voter sentiment.
Meanwhile, the broader battlefield continues to deteriorate for Republicans. Democrats are favored to flip the House and remain competitive in the Senate, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, forcing the GOP to burn millions protecting once-safe seats while abandoning former pickup targets.