The world's finance chiefs spent last week in Bangkok debating the biggest risk facing the global economy — with debt, artificial intelligence and trade imbalances topping the list. Meanwhile, China, long a main risk factor in these discussions, was no longer at the top of the worry list.
The Bangkok meetings were the first in Asia since 2018, when the gathering was held in Bali, Indonesia. Thailand last hosted in 1991, six years before the unpegging of the baht from the U.S. dollar set off the Asian financial crisis.
Fast-forward to 2026, and anything from global imbalances to the AI boom or a massive debt buildup in the "Global North" could trigger the next financial crisis, said Kevin Gallagher, director of Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, who spoke with reporters in Beijing after attending the IMF and World Bank meetings.
The IMF was upbeat on economies positioned to benefit from the global AI supply chain, such as South Korea, Japan and China, and downbeat on those that aren't, warning that the AI build-out is widening gaps between economies.
AI-related borrowing is also pushing up debt levels and competing with governments for capital, which lifts borrowing costs further. The IMF warned that should AI technology fail to deliver the promised productivity gains, it could trigger severe global economic consequences.